Morbidity and prevalence of malignant neoplasms of the thyroid gland in Ukraine and Kyiv region after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident
Keywords:thyroid cancer, malignant neoplasms of the thyroid gland, epidemiology, morbidity rate, prevalence, risk factors, Ukraine, Kyiv region
Background. The annual increase in the number of newly diagnosed cases of malignant neoplasms of the thyroid gland (MNTG) is observed both in the territories most contaminated with radioiodine after the Chernobyl accident, and in other regions. The heterogeneous nature of the regional increase of this pathology requires a detailed analysis of the prevalence and the morbidity rate of MNTG, taking into account the possible influence of risk factors. The purpose was to analyze the morbidity rate and the prevalence of MNTG among the population of Ukraine and Kyiv region after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. Materials and methods. The analysis of the bulletins of the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine, the data of statistical reports of healthcare institutions of Kyiv region (2005–2016) and literature data since 1981, which contained relevant information on the subject was performed. Statistical analysis of indicators was carried out using software package Windows Office Excel 2016 and StatSoft Statistica 10.0.1011.0. Results. Since 1990 in Ukraine, there has been a sharp increase in the morbidity rate of MNTG compared with the pre-Chernobyl period. From 1989 to 2004, the all-Ukrainian rate of increase in the morbidity rate of thyroid cancer among male population was 90.28 %, and among females — 104.42 %; for Kyiv region — 65.6 and 156.9 %, respectively. In 2005–2016, in addition to increase in the share of MNTG in the structure of all cancer pathologies, there was also a significant increase in the morbidity rate: 1.7-fold in Ukraine (+70 %, p < 0.01) and 1.5-fold in the region (+52.6 %, p < 0.01), with higher incidence rates for this period in Kyiv region. Gender analysis (2005–2016) revealed the prevalence of thyroid cancer in the female population, and in terms of the age structure, the highest rate of increase in the morbidity rate was observed among men aged 40–44 and women aged 30–34 years. In addition, the heterogeneous nature of the regional distribution of the morbidity rate was clearly observed. The rate of increase in prevalence over the same period in Ukraine as a whole was 112.5 %, and in the region — 98.2 %, the predictive model showed its increase over at least next 5 years. Conclusions. The annual steady increase in the morbidity rate and prevalence of MNTG, as well as the heterogeneous gender, age and regional distribution of the studied parameters indicates the multifactoriality and relevance of studying this problem with the subsequent improvement of the system of preventive measures.
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