Prognostic Characteristics of Hypothyroidism Prevalence in the Poltava Region and in Ukraine under Conditions of Iodine Deficiency
Introduction. The increasing interest in the problem of thyroid pathology in recent years is determined by its growing prevalence among the population of Ukraine, and hypothyroidism is one of the most common pathology of the endocrine system. Objective — to conduct an analysis of the incidence and prevalence of hypothyroidism in Ukraine and Poltava region in conditions of iodine deficiency.
Materials and methods. Comparative analysis of thyroid pathology in Ukraine and in the Poltava region for the past 30 years has been carried out, the prevalence of hypothyroidism in 2005–2013 has been studied with the construction of predictive model of hypothyroidism prevalence in the Poltava region and in Ukraine in general.
Results. Poltava region belongs to the areas of moderate iodine deficiency. Since 1980, there was not only increased number of thyroid disease in general, but also the changes in its structure, specific weight of hypothyroidism in the Poltava region increased by 4.9 times, while in Ukraine — by 5.3. Analyzing the predictive models of hypothyroidism prevalence in the Poltava region, we state that with a probability of 95.6 %, from 2013 to 2019 this pathology can increase twofold and will range (interval forecast) from 5,220 to 5,853.
Conclusion. These data suggest that the constant growth of this pathology in various regions of Ukraine, in particular in the Poltava region, leads to the need to identify the features of development, clinical course, regimens of treatment and prevention depending on regional characteristics.
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